[jerhanner]

Originally Posted by Captain_Archer

But Vulcans arent real

WHAT?

[masterchief1001]

Originally Posted by Livingston

I agree, I mean who's to say there are not civilizations out there millions of years old, with millions of years of technological development. These things may take time, if we can survive in the long run. The dinosaurs were the dominant form of life on this planet for roughly 170 million years or so. Modern humans have been here roughly 130,000 years or so and recorded history is only about 8,000 years and look what we've achieved in that time. Look what we've achieved just in the last hundred years. We're new borns on the cosmic scale of civilizations if such a scale exists. Who knows how long the human race will last and what it will achieve.

If warp drive is impossible, it may only seem that way from our limited science. Things will change, new discoveries will arise and if we can survive in the long term I'd say interstellar travel will happen. It may not be anything like warp drive and it may not happen for a millenia but if we can last, it'll happen I think.

Well there's always the old question... if there are other civilizations out there, where are they? If they are that far advanced they should have been here by now. It is the argument that someone has to be first in the universe and it might be us. Unlikely but possible. As far as impossibilities, Richard Feynman, a star trek fan, said, "It is scientific only to say what is more likely and what less likely, and not to be proving all the time the possible and impossible."

[Livingston]

True, but if there are civilizations out there that have thousands or perhaps millions of years of technological history behind them, why come here? What could we do for them? Why would they wish to start a dialogue or contact with a civilization potentially thousands of years behind them in advancement?

We may be the first, we may be the only but just because we have not been contacted by another civilization doesn't mean they're not out there in my view.

[masterchief1001]

Think of it, from a very human perspective. We are very lonely in the universe. We have kindred spirits here on Earth in the Whales, Apes and other intelligent beings, but none with our level (not technological, but merely cognitively) to call friend. If we found another intelligent race out there, would we not want reach out? I would want to. But I also feel there are reasons for not wanting to talk to us: If we can't even treat to our own brother humans and cousins in nature civilly, why would they want to talk to us. Carl Sagan said we stand on the brink of self destruction by nuclear war, and we still stand there. This is what Star Trek was about... that we are capable of overcoming that.

[gornski]

Originally Posted by Livingston

True, but if there are civilizations out there that have thousands or perhaps millions of years of technological history behind them, why come here? What could we do for them? Why would they wish to start a dialogue or contact with a civilization potentially thousands of years behind them in advancement?

We may be the first, we may be the only but just because we have not been contacted by another civilization doesn't mean they're not out there in my view.

Yeah, but Masterchief nailed it with the Feynmann quote about probablities.

If FTL is easy, then the odds are that nearly every civilization will find it at some point in their development. And if there are abundant civilizations, the odds are that quite a few of of them are at the level of having just developed FTL and would be exploring and contacting new civilizations like ours.

So, the fact that we haven't (to our knowledge) been visited by one of these civilizations tends to cast doubt on at least one of those presumptions. So, either

1. FTL is so hard that most civilizations don't figger it out, or
   
2. Civilizations are not abundant on a galactic scale.

Once again, these are probability type arguments. So here's to hoping that they are wrong.

[Captain Tom Coughlin]

there is also #3, that by the time a civilization is advanced enough to develop FTL, that they either are able to study a civililazation like ours without being detected, or that they are so far beyond us that we don't interest them in the slightest.

[Livingston]

That's a great point. Sure there are other reasons than mere technology to reach out and learn about another being. I'm only talking in logistics here. No one knows what's out there, no one knows how it's going actually be. We may find we're the only life in the universe, I seriously doubt it, but I suppose it is possible. Or we may find we're on the fringes of some stellar empire or great civilization and our options for expansion are severely limited. Who knows, scifi has gone in both directions in literature, film and TV. I definitely agree with the Sagan quote. We are always teetering on the edge of self annihilation once that technology was developed. I remember in Sagan's book Contact how they asked the team what will you ask of these beings when you meet them and they said they'd ask, "how you survived yourselves, how you got past your technological adolescence." In Star Trek it was a Third World War that got us past it and the development of interstellar travel. And speaking of Trek I certainly think the Prime Directive is a major necessity in dealing with any technological race. It's a smart tool and philosophy. It's like you said, look how we treat each other today. Look at our history. Would you help us? It may be another reason civilizations haven't contacted us if they're out there.

There's also the Conquistadors and Native Americans. Maybe our planet is a really nice place some aliens out there would like to call home. Well, if they can cross space it won't be much of a fight. Never seen a scifi story go that direction!

[Beetlescott]

Originally Posted by Captain_Archer

But Vulcans arent real

Wait a minute! Vulcans aren't real!? OMG!

[Livingston]

Originally Posted by gornski

Yeah, but Masterchief nailed it with the Feynmann quote about probablities.

If FTL is easy, then the odds are that nearly every civilization will find it at some point in their development. And if there are abundant civilizations, the odds are that quite a few of of them are at the level of having just developed FTL and would be exploring and contacting new civilizations like ours.

So, the fact that we haven't (to our knowledge) been visited by one of these civilizations tends to cast doubt on at least one of those presumptions. So, either

1. FTL is so hard that most civilizations don't figger it out, or
   
2. Civilizations are not abundant on a galactic scale.

Once again, these are probability type arguments. So here's to hoping that they are wrong.

Yeah, I'm hoping it's wrong too. It is certainly sound logic. Thing is, how long does it take to develop FTL? Like you said before it could be a thousand years before we have it, maybe Trek was set too soon. I tend to agree with this. And if this is so they perhaps civilizations, if they cross that FTL threshold they do potentially have millions of years behind them so what are we to them? Looking at the Drake Equation it says there should be plenty of civilizations out there and surely out of all those races we would have been visited or contacted but no. So it's either no easy task to achieve FTL or not too many civilizations out there or a mix of the two or as Coughlin said, we just don't interest them.

[omegaman]

What if humankind is a one in a billion freak of nature?