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View Poll Results: Can Star Trek Beat the Competition in May?
Yes 33 68.75%
No 3 6.25%
Unsure 12 25.00%
Voters: 48. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old 01-02-2009, 07:34 PM
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Originally Posted by MrQ1701 View Post
I believe the Terminator movie and the Wolverine movie will sap some of the potential revenue from Star Trek. I realize people can watch multiple movies, but the reality is many people don't go watch movies in theaters anymore. When I go it is usually for a movie I have been waiting for, but many people I have spoken to are different. They decide to go out to watch a movie and don't decide what to watch until slightly before heading to the theater. Star Trek will have it's work cut out for it. Let's hope the opening weekend does good and the word of mouth buzz carries it for a few weeks. If it isn't #1 on it's opening weekend I fear Trek may be doomed
This seems to present conflicting theories, you lost me.

How could the X-MEN or TERMINATOR films sap potential revenue from TREK if people don't go to watch movies anymore? Anyone who stays home from theatrical runs won't see any of the three films mentioned, so they are not a lost ticket sale to any one of them.

If people do go see 'event' films still, then TREK will gain exactly the audience it draws to see it in a theater, because those interested in seeing it will make the effort. If anything, the more of an 'event' TREK turns out to be, the more people it will draw off the couch and into theaters, not less. If TREK proves not to be a great event film, then it will lose ticket sales on its own merits and not because of X-MEN or TERMINATOR. [As the same holds true for both those sequels, of course.]

Given the time spacing already discussed, I see few if any people interested in all three films having to choose between seeing one over the other. No big film is opening directly against TREK on opening weekend. The vast majority of those who see TREK on opening day/weekend will see it then regardless of what other movie opened the week before... that's what opening weekend crowds do.

X-MEN will get audiences on the May 8th weekend that either didn't want to see TREK opening weekend (no loss there) or couldn't get tickets to TREK because it sells out (win for Paramount).

The key for TREK's financial success will be how long it stays in the top slot and in the top five at the box office. The best scenario is that TREK has 'legs' and continues to draw audiences one, two, three, six weeks after it opens. It's off to a good start in that it gets from the 8th to the 21st with only ANGELS AND DEMONS really offering competition as a new opener, and its age demographics aren't going to overlap strongly with TREK's anyway.

Another way to look at it: studios are giving TREK a one-to-two week cushion for a reason, they don't want to go up against it. TERMINATOR:SALVATION wasn't pushed back to the 22nd by accident.
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  #22  
Old 01-06-2009, 04:14 AM
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Originally Posted by MissionTrek08 View Post
The key for TREK's financial success will be how long it stays in the top slot and in the top five at the box office. The best scenario is that TREK has 'legs' and continues to draw audiences one, two, three, six weeks after it opens. It's off to a good start in that it gets from the 8th to the 21st with only ANGELS AND DEMONS really offering competition as a new opener, and its age demographics aren't going to overlap strongly with TREK's anyway.

Another way to look at it: studios are giving TREK a one-to-two week cushion for a reason, they don't want to go up against it. TERMINATOR:SALVATION wasn't pushed back to the 22nd by accident.
Great reply. This is how it will suceed. I'm doubtful it will be the Titanic of Sci-Fi but with what it is up against I expect a sequel!
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  #23  
Old 01-06-2009, 04:43 AM
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I think Wolverine will be on top for its first week, but that Star Trek will either knock it down to 2nd place or come in 2nd its self. Then Star Trek will remain in the 1st or 2nd place slot until Terminator Salvation and Night at the Museum 2 come out, at which point if it does drop it will only drop to the number 3 slot.
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  #24  
Old 01-06-2009, 06:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Sybock View Post
I'm hopeful that Star Trek will make enough money at the box office to warrent more films in the series. What do you think of the competition?

05.01.09:

X-men Origins: Wolverine
The Ghosts of Girlfriends Past

05.08.09:

STAR TREK
Next Day Air
My Life in Ruins
Wild Child

05.15.19

Angels & Demons
Bruno
The Brother's bloom

05.22.09

Terminator Salvation
Night at the Museum 2: Battle of the Smithsonian

05.24.09

Up
Drag Me To Hell

If think Star Trek's competition for box office gold that month may come from these films,in this order- 1)Angels and Demons 2)Wolverine 3)Museum 4) Terminator ..... Two sequels and two prequels against a re-boot.
If they can make a second Night at the Museum movie.(which in my opinion was ridiculously trite and boring) I think Star Trek has a good chance at making enough money at the box office to secure sequels.
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  #25  
Old 01-06-2009, 06:50 AM
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Will the poor economy ruin the box office numbers?
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  #26  
Old 01-06-2009, 06:57 AM
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Will the poor economy ruin the box office numbers?
I really don't think so...people will still go and see movies the only thing I see getting hit is the snack counters at the theaters.
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  #27  
Old 01-06-2009, 12:09 PM
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Will the poor economy ruin the box office numbers?
It's hard to predict accurately, since May is a long way off. But movie tickets will certainly be more enticing a prospect then than they might have been in December, when everyone is overspending already. So I think the release date move was smart in that aspect.

If it helps: even during hard times like the Great Depression (not to compare that to today's financial climate), people still went to movies for entertainment and escape, sacrificing more expensive diversions like vacations, theme parks and such. The film industry is hardly immune to tough times, but even with today's prices a ticket still boils down to relatively cheap, local entertainment.
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  #28  
Old 01-06-2009, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by MissionTrek08 View Post
It's hard to predict accurately, since May is a long way off. But movie tickets will certainly be more enticing a prospect then than they might have been in December, when everyone is overspending already. So I think the release date move was smart in that aspect.

If it helps: even during hard times like the Great Depression (not to compare that to today's financial climate), people still went to movies for entertainment and escape, sacrificing more expensive diversions like vacations, theme parks and such. The film industry is hardly immune to tough times, but even with today's prices a ticket still boils down to relatively cheap, local entertainment.
How true. I remember my father telling me stories of when he was a kid during the Great Depression. He would work after school mowing lawns and stacking wood in a lumberyard all week just so he could go to the show. At that time in Hayward, California a movie cost 10 cents my Father was making 22 cents a week. So comparing then to now is pretty tough.
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  #29  
Old 01-06-2009, 06:00 PM
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Because of the loyal fanbase, Star Trek has always carried the opening weekend. Even Star Trek 5 which was considered a failure, had a number one weekend. I feel that with all the advertisement the film will have had by May, and it really looks good, This film will walk away and beat the competition!!!
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  #30  
Old 01-06-2009, 10:08 PM
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Not quite true - Nemesis failed to top the box office it's opening weekend and was the first Trek film not to do so.
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