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View Poll Results: How much will ST 11 make at the Box Office
50-150 million 12 12.90%
150-200 million 16 17.20%
200-350 million 30 32.26%
350-500 million 27 29.03%
1 billion [Dark Knight is edging towards it and Titanic already has] 8 8.60%
Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old 12-15-2008, 06:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Frenzy View Post
Lets be honest, Trekkies now will take any Trek in any form, we will b!tch about it but we will see it.
Not me, I didn't go see the last three movies and didn't even buy the DVDs.. I copied rentals from Netflix...

Before you start sayin, "but why? you should support what you love!" simple answer is... I don't love it anymore... I love what it used to be. Kinda the same reason 65 percent of marriages fail... lol

I think the movie will make back the money spent, perhaps a bit more, and this will be enough to justify another. However, the economy is sinkin pretty damn fast... anyone who keeps up on the news should know this... paramount was wise to push back the date just for this reason... hopefully the economy will be back up a bit by May... however I don't think it will be and most financial institution analysts don't either.

We shall see...
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  #22  
Old 12-15-2008, 10:02 AM
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I would project in the 50-150 million range for worldwide box office gross. Above 50 million WW seems to be the average for any Star Trek movie, and although four of the films have broken the 100 mill WW mark, of those four only First Contact came close to making 150mil WW. I have a feeling it will be the same for this film.

By steps....
1. OMG it's a Star Trek movie.
2. Hey, this movie ain't too bad. (With a lot of movie goers not even thinking about comparing it to the appeal of First Contact. They just know this movie appeals to them somehow.)
3. The movie does fairly well, above the 100 mill WW mark.
4. Around 150 mil, the film's stayed its welcome in the theater, and the transition to DVD (hopefully Blu-Ray) begins. With movie prices the way they are, and given the inherent limited appeal of the name Star Trek, I'd say these are pretty generous numbers.

And there is every possibility that this film could go just over 150 mil WW, making it the highest grossing Trek film of all time.

Given Trek's theater history in the past, this is what I forsee.

But I could be wrong.
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  #23  
Old 12-15-2008, 10:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martok2112 View Post
I would project in the 50-150 million range for worldwide box office gross. Above 50 million WW seems to be the average for any Star Trek movie, and although four of the films have broken the 100 mill WW mark, of those four only First Contact came close to making 150mil WW. I have a feeling it will be the same for this film.
That all depends on where and when you get your info: adjusting dollar grosses for inflation, TMP made nearly $230 million and ST IV over $200m.

The $150 million for ST:FC wouldn't even be a comparable comparison for 2009 box office dollars, as it was released 12 years ago.
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  #24  
Old 12-15-2008, 10:33 AM
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Well, why do i feel we are underbidding? I am sure Lost fans would not mind seeing it, also JJ is attempting to bring "See Trek coz its an American legend, revamped to look cool and sexy" It should work, as looking at the May roster Trek is not swamped by competition. Also 150 mil $ is the budget of a BIG FRAKIN MOVIE!!!! Earning 150 mil is too easy, hell Mummy 3 grossed 400 mill worldwide with a crappy story and poor visuals!!
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  #25  
Old 12-15-2008, 11:02 AM
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Indeed I do not count inflation into my figures. (I don't profess to be a math major...or even a minor. )

My source for this info was Box Office Mojo.

Here were the numbers, thus spake them:
Star Trek The Motion Picture $82,258,456 no worldwide release
Star Trek II The Wrath of Khan $78,912,963 no worldwide release
Star Trek III The Search for Spock $76,471,046 no worldwide release
Star Trek IV The Voyage Home $109,713,132 no worldwide release
Star Trek V The Final Frontier $52,210,049 no worldwide release
Star Trek VI The Undiscovered Country $74,888,996 Worldwide:$96,888,996


Star Trek Generations $75,671,125 Worldwide: $118,071,125

Star Trek First Contact $92,027,888 Worldwide: $146,027,888
Star Trek Insurrection $70,187,658 Worldwide: $112,587,658
Star Trek Nemesis $43,254,409 Worldwide: $67,312,826

Domestic total gross: $755,595,722 Total Worldwide gross: $940,454,139

I do think that if the first five films had gotten world wide release, they would've done considerably better....but these are the numbers. But, as you can also see, a worldwide release also does not guarantee a doubling (or any significant multiplication) of the box office grosses. In fact, it would seem that a world wide release only marginally benefited the latter Trek films.

Contrast this with the six Star Wars films:
Star Wars: A New Hope $460.9 million. worldwide $775,398,007
Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace $431.1 million. worldwide $924,317,558
Star Wars: Episode II: Attack of the Clones $310.7 million Worldwide:$649,398,328
Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith $380 million Worldwide: $848,998,815
Star Wars: Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back $290,475,067 Worldwide: $538,375,067
Star Wars: Episode VI: Return of the Jedi $309,306,177 Worldwide: $475,106,177
Domestic total gross: $2,182,500,000 Worldwide total gross: $4,211,593,952

In each and every case, a worldwide release for a Star Wars film came very close to (or actually did end up) doubling or even tripling the end numbers for the domestic gross. (The exception seeming to be Return of the Jedi) Overall, the worldwide gross for the six Star Wars films have doubled up the domestic numbers.

Given the nature of the appeal of the name Star Trek, again, I forsee decent, but not blockbuster numbers for the new movie. I hope I'm wrong. I would like to see a Star Trek movie do blockbuster grosses...but... well, I won't hold my breath. It is very possible, and again, I'm hopeful, that JJ will do for Trek what Nicholas Meyer did before him, and JJ has a much grander scale to work with. I hope (cautiously) it is to his benefit.
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  #26  
Old 12-15-2008, 11:10 AM
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I think a better indication for a movie's performance from the studio's / capital suppliers's perspective would be the rate of return for their project. For example Blair Witch Project made about 250'' $ with a budget of 22' , that's a rate of return of over 10000! Now if that trick would only work for the money on our saving accounts
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  #27  
Old 12-15-2008, 11:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frenzy View Post
Well, why do i feel we are underbidding? I am sure Lost fans would not mind seeing it, also JJ is attempting to bring "See Trek coz its an American legend, revamped to look cool and sexy" It should work, as looking at the May roster Trek is not swamped by competition. Also 150 mil $ is the budget of a BIG FRAKIN MOVIE!!!! Earning 150 mil is too easy, hell Mummy 3 grossed 400 mill worldwide with a crappy story and poor visuals!!
The Mummy is also something with a bit more appeal, akin to the Indiana Jones/swashbuckling adventurer type genre. Bad story or no, The Mummy series had that "initial impact appeal" working for it. And it worked just enough to give it the blockbuster numbers it needed.

Star Trek is too well known a quantity as egghead sci-fi with the occasional action scene (based on general perception...not my opinion, 'coz I luvs me some Trek )....a genre that the world is still only slowly warming up to.
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  #28  
Old 12-16-2008, 03:35 AM
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Originally Posted by thypentacle View Post
Not me, I didn't go see the last three movies and didn't even buy the DVDs.. I copied rentals from Netflix...

Before you start sayin, "but why? you should support what you love!" simple answer is... I don't love it anymore... I love what it used to be. Kinda the same reason 65 percent of marriages fail... lol

I think the movie will make back the money spent, perhaps a bit more, and this will be enough to justify another. However, the economy is sinkin pretty damn fast... anyone who keeps up on the news should know this... paramount was wise to push back the date just for this reason... hopefully the economy will be back up a bit by May... however I don't think it will be and most financial institution analysts don't either.

We shall see...
Kind of sad... you say you don't love it anymore but you took the time and effort to "steal" them... kinda pathetic (yeah harsh I know - movie theft is my biggest thing I despise) not loving it anymore does in no way justify pirating. If you won't pay to see it - THEN DON'T SEE IT. And renting it doesn't justify the right to copy it. Theft is theft. I hate hypocrites... "I won't pay because I don't like it anymore, but hey I have all the movies in my stolen collection!!"

ok Im done razzing.
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  #29  
Old 12-16-2008, 05:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dv8pdx View Post
Kind of sad... you say you don't love it anymore but you took the time and effort to "steal" them... kinda pathetic (yeah harsh I know - movie theft is my biggest thing I despise) not loving it anymore does in no way justify pirating. If you won't pay to see it - THEN DON'T SEE IT. And renting it doesn't justify the right to copy it. Theft is theft. I hate hypocrites... "I won't pay because I don't like it anymore, but hey I have all the movies in my stolen collection!!"

ok Im done razzing.

I've done far worse... lol

and I am not a hypocrite... I would only be that if I said not to steal something, then I stole something... I've never said, "Thou shall not steal." to anyone that I know of..

and I know people hate pirates, yet every time I download a movie on a torrent site with 25K plus sources, I gotta wonder if that is really true generally speaking... and I won't even bring up how many seem to think it ok to download mp3 music that is copyrighted even though it's a federal crime now, at least in the U.S.
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  #30  
Old 12-16-2008, 06:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thypentacle View Post
I've done far worse... lol

and I am not a hypocrite... I would only be that if I said not to steal something, then I stole something... I've never said, "Thou shall not steal." to anyone that I know of..

and I know people hate pirates, yet every time I download a movie on a torrent site with 25K plus sources, I gotta wonder if that is really true generally speaking... and I won't even bring up how many seem to think it ok to download mp3 music that is copyrighted even though it's a federal crime now, at least in the U.S.
But you are a hypocrite - as you stated, you didn't pay to go see the last 3 movies or buy them on DVD because you said you didn't love it anymore - BUT you have no problem stealing it to add to your collection and watch when ever you wanted - thats a hypo!. So you admitted to being a thief twice now (which is dumb on the official ST forum) and tried to justify it on how everyone else does it - so lets just leave you clowned and let this thread go back to the real subject. Which is fitting I guess, cause ST gross could be higher if not for torrent thiefs.
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