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  #71  
Old 05-06-2009, 11:14 PM
lonstar70 lonstar70 is offline
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Originally Posted by martok2112 View Post
A report from AP predicted a $60million opening weekend. A respectable opening by any stretch.
Really? Those figures would disappoint me for such a highly anticipated, great word of mouth movie. Never has a ST movie had this kind of buildup. Media blitz, specials all over TV and magazines... 100 million over the 4 day weekend.
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  #72  
Old 05-06-2009, 11:31 PM
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Given that it is Star Trek, $60 million weekend would be a tremendous opening even with "word of mouth" and the "hype" behind it, and the audience it is trying to reach.

$70 million opening weekend is a good number for Trek fans (and Paramount) to really hope for, and would certainly legitimize Trek as being capable of generating blockbuster numbers so quickly. (Whereas 6 of the ten Trek films made around or less than this in their entire run theatrically.)

$80 million over the weekend is cause for jubilant celebration.

Anything beyond that over the weekend would be miraculous. (Then again, I do believe in miracles.)


Looking at the past numbers:

From Box Office Mojo:

Star Trek The Motion Picture $82,258,456 no worldwide release
Star Trek II The Wrath of Khan $78,912,963 no worldwide release
Star Trek III The Search for Spock $76,471,046 no worldwide release
Star Trek IV The Voyage Home $109,713,132 no worldwide release
Star Trek V The Final Frontier $52,210,049 no worldwide release
Star Trek VI The Undiscovered Country $74,888,996 Worldwide: $96,888,996
Star Trek Generations $75,671,125 Worldwide: $118,071,125
Star Trek First Contact $92,027,888 Worldwide: $146,027,888
Star Trek Insurrection $70,187,658 Worldwide: $112,587,658
Star Trek Nemesis $43,254,409 Worldwide: $67,312,826
Domestic total gross: $755,595,722 Total Worldwide gross: $940,454,139

Those numbers are from their completed runs. Back in the day for the original six movies, those are pretty good runs. Looking at them now (even including the total runs --even worldwide-- of the other four TNG films), those range from what would be decent to respectable opening weekends today.
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  #73  
Old 05-07-2009, 12:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martok2112 View Post
A report from AP predicted a $60million opening weekend. A respectable opening by any stretch.
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Originally Posted by Illinoisguy1 View Post
From Variety.

"In terms of "Star Trek's" opening weekend gross, Par insiders are predicting $50 million to $60 million domestically. Rivals agree. Tracking shows younger demos less interested than adults, although the numbers are picking up for the under 18 crowd.
Advance ticket sales for domestic runs surged Tuesday, with 87 Imax shows alone selling out. Like several other recent films, “Star Trek” could outperform tracking."

If Paramount can accept 50 to 60 million than that's fine with me as well.

But I agree that it will open higher than that.
Just a wild guess here, but I predict between 67 to 74 million OW.
I think $50+ was the original est but I'm sure I read somewhere that it had recently been bumped up to the $70-80 range.

But yes, anything over $50 would be good - but predictions can go wrong as well. So more is possible. Pushing $100 is not a total impossibility.
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  #74  
Old 05-07-2009, 12:07 PM
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I think it'll do better...but not by a bunch...
but don't be surprised if it doesn't BUT

THIS IS MOVIE MAY....
(anything is possible)
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  #75  
Old 05-07-2009, 12:13 PM
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A local cell phone company here bought out seats for an ENTIRE screening of Star Trek on the biggest screen at the multiplex here when it premieres tomorrow. I can't get into the biggest screen cus they bought out all the seats. I have to go to crappy Screen 3 to watch the premiere. While they and their guests get comfy with Screen 1.

Hmppph.

It's that big I suppose.

But It's not like Paramount is using the cell phone company to promote Star Trek like with other companies like Burger King. I'm fully sure that the cell phone company is using Star Trek to promote the cell phone company.

Parasites. Every last one of them. They did it too with Dark Knight. There was this life size display of Batman in the multiplex and on batman's chest was a sticker displaying the logo for the cell phone company. My friend boldy walked up to it and ripped the sticker off.

If I see any life size displays of any Star Trek stuff with ANY cell phone company logos on them, I'm going to do what my friend did.
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  #76  
Old 05-07-2009, 12:17 PM
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I assume ticket sales are based on when it is shown correct? So if someone buys a ticket today for next Friday it wont show on this weeks figures?
I believe that may be correct, though I don't know if I have proof available.

In any case, the ticket sale will only count once. But I think a ticket sale for an advanced screening only counts according to the screening date, not the purchase date.

Otherwise selling advanced tickets would totally inflate opening weekend sales -- theoretically theaters could sell more tickets than seats available if they included future screenings. That would seem a bad statistical model, because then next week's numbers would plummet artificially, listing sales for fewer tickets than were actually used by moviegoers.
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  #77  
Old 05-07-2009, 12:17 PM
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It may also have an expected opening but have legs and hold in there for weeks after weeks against the competition.

No-one can say til it goes either way.
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  #78  
Old 05-07-2009, 12:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MissionTrek08 View Post
I believe that may be correct, though I don't know if I have proof available.

In any case, the ticket sale will only count once. But I think a ticket sale for an advanced screening only counts according to the screening date, not the purchase date.

Otherwise selling advanced tickets would totally inflate opening weekend sales -- theoretically theaters could sell more tickets than seats available if they included future screenings. That would seem a bad statistical model, because then next week's numbers would plummet artificially, listing sales for fewer tickets than were actually used by moviegoers.
I'm not sure if I understand it correctly, but since the bulk of pre-sales are for Thursday's etc then they will be reported as part of the Thursday figures, but that they will be separated from the Fri-Sun actuals.
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  #79  
Old 05-07-2009, 12:20 PM
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I think it will do over a hundred million this weekend and do incredibly well during the week because of repeat viewings by movie goers.
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  #80  
Old 05-07-2009, 12:22 PM
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www.boxofficemojo.com has a 'guess the opening gross' feature for Star Trek. It's currently average a $74.1 million opening.
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