Thread: Civil War II?
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Old 11-26-2012, 01:16 PM
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horatio horatio is offline
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Originally Posted by Akula2ssn View Post
Do you think China's military leadership also might be a little bit of a wild card on the side? My understanding is that not all of the funding the PLA gets is from the civilian government. Apparently the Chinese military also owns a number of private business which theoretically would give their military a certain degree of financial autonomy.
I have no idea at all. Economic interests always merge with military ones but if we take Chinese history as a benchmark it is unlikely that the country will expand worldwide and e.g. conquer Africa like Europe did or maintain worldwide military bases like the US does. But the country definitely has an interest in gaining at least regional power and East Asia is not a tension-free area.

So my fairly uninformed guess is that their military engagement will be limited to the region for the near future. It is not a peaceful power that merely maintains a military to deter and defend but it is not a country eager to operate on the other side of the world either.
Let's also not forget former Western strategic mistakes like trying to get Georgia, a country next to Russia, into the NATO. Nobody would have come up with such a dumb idea during the Cold War. Same applies for East Asia, if we think that we can maintain a military presence on the doorstep of a new superpower we are obviously braindead.
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